The highly anticipated planted acreage and quarterly stocks
reports will be released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday. In
past mid-year reports, there have been few major swings in planted acres
compared to USDA’s March prospective plantings survey.
However, this year’s report could be different due to
possible changes in planting plans as a result of the wet spring. The planted
acreage report is based on a survey taken of farmers during the first two weeks
Allendale Inc. provided its predictions on the upcoming
report late last week and offers a glimpse of what might happen. Corn planted
acres are expected to decrease by 2.918 million acres from USDA’s March
prospective plantings survey that projected 97.282 million acres, according to
the marketing and brokerage firm.
“This reflects both preventive plant, as well as acres
switched to soybeans. This number implies the second-largest acres in the past
50 years,” Allendale said in a news release.
Soybeans will benefit from the corn acreage decline. Soybean
acres are expected to increase by 2.114 million acres to 79.24 million acres due
to late corn and spring wheat planting and a change in the corn-soybean
profitability — if realized, this would be a record soybean planting.
For wheat, Allendale anticipates a 684,000-acre reduction
compared to the March survey. A sizeable adjustment to spring wheat was made,
though nowhere near a record change. This is the fourth-lowest acreage in 40
Allendale projects corn and soybean quarterly stocks down
compared to June 2012. Corn quarterly stocks are projected by Allendale to be
2.805 billion bushels, down from 3.148 billion bushels 12 months ago. USDA had
quarterly corn stocks at 5.399 billion bushels this past March.
Soybean stocks are anticipated to be 422 million in this
weeks’ report, compared to 667 million bushels last June. USDA had soybean
quarterly stocks in March at 999 million bushels.
Wheat stocks are projected to be 781 million bushels in
Friday’s report, up from 743 million bushels in the June 2012 quarterly stocks
report. Stocks were 1.234 billion bushels for the end of the first quarter this
We will find out which direction planted acres goes mid-day
Friday, and the market’s reaction is anybody’s guess. Figuring out the markets
hurts my head, so I won’t go there.