WASHINGTON — With less than one-third of the nation’s corn and 5 percent of the soybeans planted, the U.S. Department of Agriculture provided its first look at the new crop balance sheet.

The world agricultural supply and demand estimates report projected corn and soybean yield increases this year, based on a weather adjusted yield trend model and assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer weather. Wheat yields are projected lower.

“Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative,” the USDA said in the report.

The corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up 6.5 bushels from 2013-2014.

Corn production is anticipated at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from the last year’s record with higher expected yields more than offsetting the year-to-year reduction in planted area. Production estimates are based on the March 31 prospective plantings report.

Corn supplies for 2014-2015 marketing year are predicted at a record 15.1 billion bushels, up 330 million from the previous year.

U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014-2015 are projected at a record 403.3 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013-2014 mostly on larger corn beginning stocks.

U.S. corn use for the new crop year is anticipated 2 percent lower than in 2013-2014. The USDA projected feed and residual use of 50 million bushels lower with animal numbers down from 2013-2014.

Exports are projected 200 million bushels lower than this month’s higher projection for 2013-2014 as larger expected foreign supplies and lower import demand limit U.S. shipments.

Corn used to produce ethanol in 2014-2015 is expected to be unchanged on the year with gasoline consumption expected to remain flat in 2015.

Corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.7 billion bushels, up 580 million from the 2013-2014 projection.

With the larger carryout, the season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel, down from $4.50 to $4.80 per bushel for 2013-2014.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014-2015 are projected at a record 1,461 million tons, up 2 percent from 2013-2014 as the year-to-year increase in world beginning stocks more than offsets a reduction in world output.

Projected global corn production for the new marketing year, at a record 979.1 million tons, is virtually unchanged from 2013-2014.

Expected decreases for Ukraine, Brazil, India and South Africa are mostly offset by increases for China, Argentina, Russia and Mexico. Ukraine production is lowered 4.9 million tons from last year’s record level as the reduced value of the local currency keeps input prices high and reduces expected use of fertilizer and other inputs.

Global corn trade for 2014-2015 is projected lower with imports projected down year to year for China and Mexico.

Corn exports for 2014-2015 are projected lower for Ukraine and the U.S. World corn consumption is projected at a record 965.8 million tons, up 17 million from 2013-2014 on higher use in China, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico and Japan.

Global corn ending stocks for 2014-2015 are anticipated at 181.7 million tons, up 13.3 million tons on the year and at a 15-year high.

U.S. oilseed production for the new marketing year is projected at 107.9 million tons, up 11 percent from 2013-2014. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase.

Soybean Forecast

Soybean production is anticipated at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area.

The USDA projects the average soybean yield at a trend level of 45.2 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 2013.

Soybean supplies are projected at 3.78 billion bushels, up 7.4 percent from 2013-2014 as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks and imports.

The U.S. soybean crush for 2014-2015 is projected at 1.715 billion bushels, up 20 million from 2013-2014, mainly reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption.

U.S. soybean exports are anticipated at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million from 2013-2014 on record supplies and competitive prices.

Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014-2015 are projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from the old crop year, increasing the stocks-to-use ratio to 9.6 percent.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014-2015 is forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel compared with $13.10 per bushel in 2013-2014.

Soybean meal prices are forecast at $355 to $395 per short ton, compared with $485 per ton for 2013-2014. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 37 to 41 cents per pound compared with 40 cents for 2013-2014.

New crop global oilseed production for is projected at a record 515.2 million tons, up 2.4 percent from 2013-2014 with increased soybean and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed, sunflower see and cottonseed production.

Mostly due to a larger U.S. crop, global soybean production is projected at 299.8 million tons, up 5.6 percent.

The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 91 million tons, up 3.5 million on small gains in area and yield. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons, unchanged from 2013-2014 with lower area offset by higher yields.

With crush projected to increase 2.4 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 94.8 million tons, up 14.6 million.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.2 percent in 2014-2015. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.5 percent in China, which accounts for 30 percent of global protein consumption gains.

Global soybean exports are estimated at 112.3 million tons, up 1.5 percent from 2013-2014. China oil consumption is projected to increase 4.1 percent in 2014-2015 led by increases for China, India and Indonesia.

Wheat Numbers

U.S. wheat supplies for the new marketing year are projected down 10 percent from 2013-2014 with beginning stocks, production and imports all expected lower.

Supplies for the new marketing year are projected to be the lowest since 2007-2008. Production is projected at 1,963 million bushels, down 8 percent from last year.

The all wheat yield is projected at 42.7 bushels per acre, down 4.5 bushels from the last year’s record.

The survey-based forecast for 2014-2015 all winter wheat production is down 9 percent on the year with the harvested-to-planted ratio just above last year’s 11-year low and the yield forecast at its lowest level since 2007-2008. Most of the decline year to year in winter wheat reflects lower area and yields for soft red winter wheat.

Total U.S. wheat use for 2014-2015 is projected down 11 percent year to year as feed and residual disappearance and exports are expected to fall with tighter supplies and higher prices.

Projected feed and residual disappearance is down 50 million bushels as abundant feed grain supplies and lower feed grain prices limit wheat feeding during the summer months. Partly offsetting are a 10-million-bushel increase in domestic food use and a 2-million-bushel increase in seed use.

The USDA projected 2014-2015 exports at 950 million bushels, down 235 million from this month’s higher 2013-2014 projection, as large supplies in other major exporting countries and tight domestic supplies of hard red winter wheat limit U.S. shipments.

U.S. ending stocks are projected to decline for a fifth consecutive year. At 540 million bushels, 2014-2015 ending stocks would be down 43 million from last year.

The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $6.65 to $7.95 per bushel.

Global 2014-205 wheat supplies are projected down less than 1 percent from 2013-2014 as reduced beginning stocks and production in the U.S. offset higher foreign beginning stocks.

World wheat production is projected at 697 million tons, down 2 percent from the record last year

Global wheat consumption for 2014-2015 is projected 1 percent lower than in 2013-2014 with a reduction in world wheat feeding only partly offset by higher expected food use.

Global ending stocks for 2014-2015 are projected at 187.4 million tons, up 0.9 million from last year.