Lower ‘I’ state wheat production forecast

WASHINGTON — The first objective yield and farmer survey of the winter wheat growing season projects U.S. production of 1.28 billion bushels, up 2% from 2023.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Illinois winter wheat to average 83 bushels per acre, 4 below last year. Harvested acres of 680,000 acres would be 100,000 lower than a year ago.

The anticipated winter wheat production in the Prairie State is 56.44 million bushels, compared to 67.86 million last year.

Indiana’s winter wheat yield is estimated at 84 bushels per acre, 8 bushels down from 2023. Projected harvested acres of 240,000 is 95,000 below last year.

USDA projects Indiana total wheat production of 20.16 million bushels, compared to 30.82 million a year ago.

Nationwide

As of May 1, the U.S. average yield is forecast at 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last year’s average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain is forecast at 25.2 million acres, 2% above last year.

U.S. producers expect to harvest 74% of the planted acres for grain. If realized, this harvest ratio would be up from last year’s ratio of 67%, but still the fourth lowest since 1951.

As of April 28, the winter wheat crop in Kansas, the largest winter wheat producing state, was rated in poor to very poor condition at 31%.

Despite the current dry conditions in Kansas, the rating was worse on April 30, 2023, at 64% poor to very poor. The projected Kansas yield is 38 bushels per acre, 3 above last year.

Survey Procedures

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between April 24 and May 7 to gather information on expected yield as of May 1.

The objective yield survey was conducted in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas where wheat is normally mature enough to make meaningful counts.

Farm operators were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected winter wheat fields.

The counts made within each sample plot depended upon the crop’s maturity. Counts such as number of stalks, heads in late boot and number of emerged heads were made to predict the number of heads that would be harvested.

The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield. The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield.

The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the heads are clipped, threshed and weighed. After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss.