Minor adjustments in USDA reports

MCHENRY, Ill. — Slightly positive with a dash of neutral summarizes the quarterly grain stocks and small grains summary reports rolled out by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Sept. 30.

The quarterly grain stocks report provided the final corn and soybean old crop ending stocks at the conclusion of the 2023-2024 marketing year, and the wheat stocks reflect the end of the first quarter of that crop’s marketing year.

Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc. chief strategist, provided his comments about the reports.

What did the USDA tell us about the year-end quarterly grain stocks?

Nelson: USDA finalized the marketing year with lower ending stocks for corn and soybeans.

Instead of 1.812 billion bushels, their last estimate, they were revised down to 1.76 billion bushels. The trade had expected an increase, so this is a little bullish.

Soybean stocks were revised up a little bit, going from 340 million bushels to now 342 million bushels on finalized numbers.

This report is positive for the corn, implying better-than-expected fourth-quarter usage.

As for soybeans, this number was what we’ll call lightly positive. Keep in mind the trade had expected numbers up to 351 million bushels of soybean ending stocks.

There was also a revision to last fall’s harvest. USDA has been doing this for soybean production the past 20 years and, in this case, 5 years for corn.

As far as a corn production revision, there was just a minuscule 1 million bushel decline from the prior estimate to 15.341 billion bushels — not a market-moving discussion.

Soybean production numbers declined from 4.165 billion bushels to 4.162 billion.

So, a minuscule production decline for both corn and soybeans.

The small grains summary had some news about all wheat.

Nelson: All wheat production numbers were revised down from 1.982 billion bushels in August to 1.971 billion. So, a very minor 11 million bushel drop. That was relatively close to the average trade guess, and what’s left over for wheat after first quarter of usage.

The Sept. 1 quarterly all wheat grain stocks were 1.986 billion bushels. The trade expected 1.973 billion bushels in wheat stocks. So, not really a big surprise or big market-mover there.

The numbers in these reports were a little positive on the corn side, neutral to slightly positive for soybeans, and we’ll call the wheat numbers mostly neutral.