Productivity poses question mark for pork producers, hog numbers

MACOMB, Ill. — Sow numbers and farrowing intentions may be dropping in the U.S. swine industry, but productivity remains the big question mark for U.S. hog supplies — and prices — moving forward.

The third-quarter U.S. Department of Agriculture Hogs and Pigs Report was released Sept. 28 and showed that producers are pulling back on the breeding herd and farrowing intentions.

“The report holds mostly small surprises of a bearish nature,” said Jason Franken, professor of agricultural economics at Western Illinois University.

The breeding herd, as of Sept. 1, stood at 6.08 million. That was down 1% from the same time last year and down 1% from last quarter.

June-August farrowings stood at 2.95 million, down 4% from the same time last year and up slightly from the previous March-May quarter, at 2.9 million head of sows farrowed.

Producers appear to be pulling back on numbers going forward. September-November intentions stood at 2.93 million.

That is a significant decrease from actual farrowings in the September-November 2022 period, at 3.09 million sows farrowed.

Further reductions in farrowings continue into the December 2023-February 2024 period, with producers intending to have 2.91 million sows farrowing, compared to December 2022-February 2023 actual farrowings of 2.95 million.

But while farrowing numbers continue to drop, productivity, in the form of pigs saved per litter, remains steady. That number could hold a big key to hog numbers and prices going forward.

June-August pigs saved per litter was 11.61. That is up significantly from the same time last year, at 11.13, and also up from the March-May quarter, at 11.36 pigs saved per litter.

“Record pigs saved per litter more than offset cuts to the breeding herd and, hence, farrowings,” Franken said.

The June-August pig crop, at 34.23 million, was up over the same time last year, at 34.1 million, and up over the March-May quarter, at 32.95 million.

The total inventory of U.S. hogs and pigs as of Sept. 1 was 74.3 million. Total inventory was up from the same time last year, at 74.125 million, and up from last quarter, at 72.74 million.

The market hog inventory stood at 68.2 million. That was up from the same time last year, at 67.97 million, and up from last quarter, at 66.59 million.

Franken said the Sept. 1 numbers translate into more pigs coming to slaughter at least through the rest of 2023 and into early 2024.

“The resulting modestly larger June-August pig crop should translate into marginally greater slaughter this winter,” he said.

“If pigs per litter continues on trend, then intended farrowings suggest lower spring and, potentially, higher summer slaughter than a year ago.”