USDA forecasts pork exports, production increases

ARLINGTON, Va. — Hog prices are projected to increase as strong domestic and export demand is expected to carry over from 2024.

Michael McConnell, U.S. Department of Agriculture livestock analyst, reviewed the 2024 hogs and pork activities and expectations for this year at the agency’s 101st annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.

“Pork production in 2024 increased 2% to 27.8 billion pounds. After poor returns during much of 2023, the hog sector saw improved profitability in 2024 on lower feed costs and higher pork prices for much of the year,” McConnell said.

“Commercial hog slaughter was 1% higher than the previous year, and the average dressed weights were a pound heavier.

“Larger pig crops were the main driver for the higher slaughter levels. While the breeding herd declined during 2024, a 2% increase in the litter rate increased the pig crop and supported higher slaughter levels.”

Commercial pork production for 2025 is forecast to increase 3% to 28.5 billion pounds.

The December 2024 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed that the breeding herd was virtually unchanged from the previous year and that producer farrowing intentions for the first half of 2025 are above 2024 levels.

“Combined with litter rates that are expected to continue improving — although not to the same magnitude as the year-over-year increases seen in 2023 and 2024 — the growth in the domestic pig crop is expected to support the higher commercial slaughter and pork production in 2025,” McConnell said.

Exports

Pork exports in 2024 increased 4% to 7.12 billion pounds. Growth was seen in several key markets, including a 4% increase in shipments to Mexico and a 12% increase to South Korea. These increases more than offset declines, such as a 2% decline to Japan and a 9% decline to China.

Exports accounted for nearly 26% of production in 2024. For 2025, pork exports are forecast to increase 3% to 7.30 billion pounds.

Increased domestic production and continued strong international demand for pork is expected to support U.S. exports.

Pork imports in 2024 were slightly higher than the previous year, totaling 1.15 billion pounds. Imports from the two largest suppliers, Canada and Mexico, declined from the previous year. This was offset by higher imports from the European Union and Brazil.

“For 2025, imports are forecast to increase 2% to 1.17 billion pounds, reflecting continued demand, particularly for specialty pork products,” McConnell said.

“National base 51% to 52% lean hog prices, live equivalent are forecast to average $65 per hundredweight in 2025, a 3% increase from the 2024 average of $61.56 per hundredweight. Despite increased availability of hogs, prices will be supported by strong demand, both domestically and internationally, and higher beef prices.”