Inflation

Every day, rain or shine, farmers rise to do their jobs. Whether we’re tired or stressed, we press on. If we disagree with a family member, we find a way forward. We don’t stall on planting or harvesting or caring for our animals.

Time is running out for Congress to pass a modernized farm bill this year. Families — on and off the farm — cannot afford a delay.

The Fourth of July is a highlight of the year on our family farm. Each summer, my family gets together for a traditional cookout, celebrating our nation with delicious food and the company of loved ones.

The Biden administration’s trade agenda — mostly forgotten after three years of COVID, inflation, war in Ukraine, brutality in the Middle East and a cantankerous Congress — recently surfaced and, wow, is it a mess.

When it comes to the 2024 farm bill, we are at one of those critical points, and if we’re going to reach the finish line, it’s time for Congress to pick up the pace.

From a window atop my grandfather’s old barn, you can see my family’s whole farm, from the hayfields to the chicken houses to the pasture where the mama cows are grazing.

The CattleFax Outlook Seminar, held as part of the 2024 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show in Orlando, shared expert market and weather analysis.

The No. 1 soybean and corn production area in Brazil has been impacted by drought during the current growing season.

On the first business day of the new year, Missouri Treasurer Vivek Malek began accepting applications for about $120 million of state-subsidized, low-interest loans to small businesses, farmers and affordable housing developers.

The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer lowered one point in December compared to November — indicating stability in farmers’ perceptions about the ag economy.

Although indicators pointed to a recession in 2023, the U.S. economy has grown during this year.

About 36.4 million tons of food and food products, including corn and soybeans, are shipped annually via Illinois waterways and are dependent upon locks and dams that were built in the 1930s.

A year-over-year gain of 5% in agricultural land values, the smallest gain in three years, was reported in the third quarter of 2023, according to a survey.

There was a modest improvement in farmer sentiment about the ag economy in October as farmers reported improvements in current conditions and future expectations on their farm.

Moderation in input prices, particularly fertilizer prices, is likely to result in lower crop breakeven prices in 2024, according to a recent article by Michael Langemeier at Purdue University.

A year ago, my column was entitled “Cattle supplies to tighten moving forward.” The day I wrote that column December live cattle futures traded around the $154 level, but a few days ago kissed $192.

An important gauge of inflation was released this week, the Consumer Price Index. It showed August inflation above expectations at 3.7% and a new three-month high.

Those who follow my column know I am quite bullish toward the food and energy markets. They also know that my forecast for those markets to turn bullish has not yet come to fruition.

Even before Congress returned from its five-week, no-work period, Republicans signaled their return will bring no 2023 farm bill and no 2024 federal budget by the two laws’ drop-dead date, Sept. 30.

A shortage of food and energy should be coming sooner than later. I fully expect the final quarter of this year and into late 2025 to be a period marked by rising prices for those two basic markets.

The last weekly column I penned in July stated boldly: “We are entering a new era for food and energy prices that will not be solved until 2025, or later.”

Several fundamental events have combined in recent days suggesting that stocks as measured by the Dow Jones could drop 50% to 60% from current levels.

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose two points in July to a reading of 123, indicating a slight increase in farmer sentiment about the ag economy.

There are several interesting theories on the ag and energy markets that have been unfolding the past few weeks.

The clock is ticking for the farm bill as it is set to expire at the end of September. Farmers and ranchers aren’t the only ones with eyes on the clock, either.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark rate for the 11th time, by a quarter-point, could once again send ripple effects across the economy.

The Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates more than a year ago to fight inflation. In June 2022, inflation was nearly 9%, but has since dropped to 3%.

Hoosiers can expect to pay around 8% more for their summer cookout this year, according to Indiana Farm Bureau’s annual summer cookout survey.

Mexico began imposing a 50% tariff on white corn imports, a move that country’s president says looks to boost national production and prevent imports of genetically modified corn.

Farmers markets gave people something they desperately sought during the pandemic: A place to shop outdoors, and at the same time support smaller, often local businesses.

There is no doubt the grain complex has evolved into a full-blown weather market thanks to above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall in the U.S. Grain Belt going into the heart of the growing season.

I love celebrating the Fourth of July with my family every year. There’s nothing like a good, old-fashioned cookout and fellowship with loved ones.

Over the past few weeks, and now that we are into the second quarter of the year, a number of commodity markets have been chopping around with a downward bias, or simply remained bearish.

The past few months, price movement in the grain complex has been simple to explain. It has been one step forward quickly followed by two steps backward, or vice versa.

Volatility in the agricultural industry creates opportunities, not just challenges. “A good manager positions himself to capitalize on that volatility,” said David Kohl, professor emeritus of agricultural and applied economics at Virginia Tech.

A few days ago, former President Barack Obama, a basketball junkie, said “this is the best time of the year.” What he was excited about was the fact the NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball tournament is played each March to determine the national champion.

Several important agricultural issues were discussed in D.C. as new bills and committees were formed.

The second to the last column I penned for this newspaper in 2022 was entitled “The super cycle is alive and well.” I wrote: “Commodities in the new year will outperform the other major asset classes, stocks, bonds and currencies.”

A first look at new crop balance sheets kicked off the 99th Agricultural Outlook Forum.

The demand trend for food is always rising. “We’re always consuming more grain as a world, as the population gets richer and we add more people,” said Dan Basse, president of the AgResource Company.

In the absence of weather-related problems this growing season in the United States, grain prices are now at levels that are simply unsustainable.

It looks like U.S. consumers will have to stomach another year of historically high food prices.

If the cost of eggs is breaking the household budget, also consider the effect on the restaurant industry.

Thus far, the outstanding feature of the new year is the money flowing into the commodity markets, per se. There is a growing belief among several major financial institutions that the commodity markets will do better this year than they did last year.

U.S. consumers continue to consume more and more cheese each year. “The most substantial growth is American cheese,” said Mark Stephenson, director of dairy policy analysis at the University of Wisconsin.

Agriculture continues to make headlines. Here is some of the latest farm industry news.

Everyone is feeling the pinch of inflation. Grocery prices have increased 21% from January 2020 to August 2022, and retail fat and oil prices have increased 30% — with soybean oil a key ingredient in frying and baking.

Commodities in the new year will outperform the other major asset classes, stocks, bonds and currencies. Of course, not all commodities will do well as some will be laggards, not possessing the right sort of bullish fundamentals to spark and sustain higher values.

Since early 2021, there has been a dramatic upward shift in the value of cropland. Howard Halderman, president of Halderman Real Estate and Farm Management, discussed trends during a webinar.

Americans look forward to celebrating the simplest of gifts and gathering with family and friends around the table during the holiday season. It is also often a time of giving thanks as Illinois farmers mark the end of another growing season.