WASHINGTON — Tighter than expected corn ending stocks were projected in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report released Aug. 12.
Here are the highlights of the USDA report.
Corn: USDA raised its season-average price by 15 cents from last month to $5.75 per bushel. Why?
• Projected beginning stocks for 2021-2022 are 35 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020-2021.
• Reduced exports are partially offset by greater corn used for ethanol, starch, and glucose and dextrose.
• Corn production for 2021-2022 is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down 415 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 174.6 bushels per acre, is 4.9 bushels below last month’s trend-based projection.
• Total U.S. corn use for 2021-2022 is down 190 million bushels to 14.7 billion.
• Feed and residual use is down 100 million bushels based mostly on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected higher based on observed use during 2020-2021.
• Exports for 2021-2022 were lowered by 100 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 190 million bushels to 1.2 billion.
• Foreign corn ending stocks for the new marketing year are down 1.7 million tons to 253.1 million.
Soybeans: The season-average price for 2021 was unchanged from July’s forecast at $13.70 per bushel. Why?
• Beginning soybean stocks were increased from 135 million to 160 million bushels on lower 2020-2021 crush and exports.
• Soybean production for 2021-2022 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million from the previous forecast on lower yields.
• Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July.
• The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50 bushels per acre was reduced 0.8 bushels from last month.
• Soybean supplies for 2020-2021 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 3% from last year.
• Soybean crush was reduced 20 million bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast which is reduced in line with the prior year and lower soybean meal exports.
• With soybean exports down 20 million bushels on lower supplies, ending stocks are forecast at 155 million bushels, unchanged from last month.
• Global 2021-2022 oilseed crush was reduced mainly on lower soybean crush for China and lower rapeseed supplies leading to reduced crush for the European Union, Canada and China.
• Soybean crush for China was lowered by 2 million tons to 98 million, in line with downward revisions to crush and soybean meal consumption in the prior year.
• With lower demand, China’s 2021-2022 soybean imports were reduced by 1 million tons to 101 million. Global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use.
Wheat: The upward price trend continued as USDA increased the 2021-2022 projected season-average farm price by a dime to $6.70 per bushel. Why?
• The crop production report forecast all wheat production at 1.697 billion bushels, down 49 million from the previous forecast. Most of the reduction is in hard red winter and soft white winter.
• The all wheat yield is forecast at 44.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from the previous forecast.
• Feed and residual use was reduced by 10 million bushels to 160 million on reduced supplies.
• Food use for both 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 was lowered slightly, based primarily on the latest flour milling products report.
• Wheat exports were unchanged, but there are offsetting by-class export changes for several classes.
• Projected 2021-2022 ending stocks were reduced 38 million bushels to 627 million and are 26% below last year.
• Projected 2021-2022 world ending stocks were lowered by 12.6 million tons to 279.1 million with China accounting for 51% of the total.
Corn (2021-2022 marketing year):
Total corn supply: 15.892 billion bushels
Exports: 2.4 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.625 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.625 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.2 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.242 billion bushels
Soybeans (2021-2022 marketing year):
Total soybean supply: 4.533 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 118 million bushels
Exports: 2.055 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.205 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 155 million bushels
:quality(70)/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-authors/shawmedia/ed197490-54d0-4d57-8027-b878c9f46789.jpg)