Survey previews spring planting intentions

MCHENRY, Ill. — A nationwide producer-based acreage survey found the potential for slightly more cushion on the corn, soybean and wheat supply sides.

Allendale Inc. conducted its annual survey Feb. 27-March 11 with 27 of the major agriculture production states represented.

Soybeans

Soybean planting intentions are projected at 89.281 million acres, 2.1 million acres over last year. This would be the second highest planting ever. The 2017 record was 90.162 million acres.

Using the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Ag Forum percent harvested, and trend yield of 51.4 bushels per acre reported last month, a production estimate of 4.555 billion bushels would be a record and 120 million bushels over last year based on the survey respondents.

“Even after changing beginning stocks to USDA’s March supply and demand numbers that were lowered by 40 million bushels, it looks like we’ll have a small total supply increase of about 25 million bushels. So, an increase in production and despite lower beginning stocks, there will still be small increase on the supply side,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist.

Corn

The survey found corn planting intentions of 92.421 million acres, 0.9 million acres over 2021. This would be the sixth largest of all time and 4.9 million acres off the 2012 peak at 97.291 acres.

Using USDA’s Ag Forum percent harvested and trend yield of 177 bushels per acre estimates, production of 15.310 billion bushels would be 195 million bushels over 2021. The production of 15.310 billion bushels in 2022 would be a record, if realized.

“We’re not going to see this big change in terms of an increase in production that overwhelms the trade. With total supply when factoring the lower beginning stocks of 1.44 billion bushels in the March supply and demand report, we’re not going to see that much of a change on the supply side for corn,” Nelson noted.

“These numbers aren’t probably major market-moving issues.”

—  Rich Nelson, chief strategist, Allendale

Wheat

Based on the survey, the all wheat acreage is estimated at 48.892 million acres, 2.2 million acres over last year. This is the highest all-wheat acreage in six years.

Using USDA’s Ag Forum percent of harvested acres and trend yield of 44.3 bushels per acre, production is estimated at 1.976 billion bushels, 330 million bushels over last year.

“For the wheat story, a little more acres than what USDA has assumed in the Ag Forum numbers. We’re going to have a small increase in wheat supply, going from 2.708 billion last month to 2.75 billion now,” Nelson said.

“We have winter wheat acres figured out, but we have questions about what the yield will be. The Plains have been quite dry in previous months. With the government’s previous weather forecast for April and May — big yield determination months — the trade is still concern about the dryness in the Western Plains and also abnormal precipitation for the soft red wheat area.

“So, a lot of us will question hard red winter wheat yields once it’s all said and done in the June and July harvest period. While we are suggesting higher acres for wheat, we may have concerns about production.

“We can argue USDA’s corn and soybean demand numbers for 2022 are probably a bit off, a bit way too conservative, especially for the export discussion. But as far as wheat goes, more people would suggest they’re probably within the general ballpark for the demand numbers.

“These numbers aren’t probably major market-moving issues. It does give us a little more room on the supply side than USDA’s Ag Forum numbers, but not changing the tone of the general supply discussion for 2022.”

Marketing Trends

The survey also asked growers their current positions on old and new crop sales.

On the corn side, 76% of the old crop and 17% of the new crop is sold, similar to the previous year.

Eighty-eight percent of old crop soybeans and 22% of new crop soybeans are sold. Last year’s survey indicated 87% of old crop and 15% of new crop soybeans sold.

The survey found 93% of old crop all wheat and 25% of new crop all wheat sold. The position 12 months ago was 81% old crop and 21% of new crop all wheat sold.

“There is a little more aggressive marketing for new crop in corn, soybeans and wheat than had been seen in normal years. Obviously this does reflect our very high prices being offered right now,” Nelson said.