WASHINGTON — A first look at the next marketing year balance sheets that included the potential impact of Ukraine crop production due to the Russian invasion was released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 12.
Here are the highlights of the world supply and demand report estimates report.
Corn: The season-average price in 2022-2023 is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago. If realized, this would be the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012-2013.
Why?
• The U.S. corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3% from last year.
• The nation’s average corn yield is projected at 177 bushels per acre, 4 bushels below the weather-adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The very slow start to this year’s planting in the major corn-producing states and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects.
• Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7% to 15.9 billion bushels for 2022-2023.
• Total U.S. corn use in 2022-2023 is forecast to fall 2.5% on declines in domestic use and exports.
• Food, seed and industrial use is unchanged at 6.8 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago on expectations of flat U.S. motor gasoline consumption.
• Corn feed and residual use is down 4.9% relative to a year ago, reflecting a smaller crop, higher expected season-average farm prices received by producers and a decline in grain consuming animal units.
• U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 4% in 2022-2023 as lower supplies and robust domestic demand limit prospects.
• Even with record exports projected for Argentina and Brazil, a 550-million-bushel drop in exports for Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict is the primary catalyst for a decline in world trade.
• With expectations of robust global demand in the face of high prices, the U.S. share of global corn trade is up slightly relative to a year ago.
• With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022-2023 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 9.3% would be below a year ago and lower than the 14.4% average seen during 2015-2016 to 2019-2020.
• Global corn ending stocks are down 1.4% to 305.1 million tons.
Soybeans: The 2022-2023 U.S. season-average price is forecast at $14.40 per bushel compared with $13.25 in 2021-2022.
Why?
• The soybean crop is projected at 4.64 billion bushels, up 5% from last year’s crop mainly on higher harvested area.
• With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4.89 billion bushels, 4% higher than 2021-2022.
• The U.S. soybean crush for new crop is projected at 2.26 billion bushels, up 40 million from the 2021-2022 forecast.
• Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2% from 2021-2022 with low soybean meal prices relative to corn.
• U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.4 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade near the prior five-year average.
• With increased supplies, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.2 billion bushels, up 60 million from the revised 2021-2022 projection.
• Despite reduced soybean supplies available for export from South America for the first half of the 2022-2023 marketing year, an anticipated record harvest and sharply higher exports beginning in early 2023 is expected to leave the United States with a lower share of global trade in 2022-2023.
• U.S. ending soybean stocks for 2022-2023 are projected at 310 million bushels, 75 million above the revised 2021-2022 forecast.
• China accounts for about half of the soybean trade growth, with 2022-2023 imports rising 7 million tons to 99 million.
• Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 99.6 million tons, up 14.4 million, with most of the increase in Brazil, Argentina and the United States.
Wheat: USDA projects the 2022-2023 season-average farm price to be a record $10.75 per bushel, up $3.05 from last year’s revised estimate.
Why?
• Wheat cash and futures prices are expected to remain sharply elevated through the first part of the marketing year when the largest proportion of U.S. wheat is marketed.
• U.S. 2022-2023 wheat supplies are projected 3% lower, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest.
• All wheat production for 2022-2023 is projected at 1.729 billion bushels, up 83 million from last year, as higher yields more than offset a slight decrease in harvested area.
• The U.S. all wheat yield, projected at 46.6 bushels per acre, is up 2.3 bushels from last year. The first survey-based forecast for 2022-2023 winter wheat production is down 8% from last year as lower hard red winter and soft red winter production more than offset an increase in white wheat production.
• Abandonment for winter wheat is the highest since 2002 with the highest levels in Texas and Oklahoma.
• Spring wheat production is projected to rebound significantly from last year’s drought-reduced hard red spring and durum crops primarily on return-to-trend yields.
• Total 2022-2023 domestic use is projected down 1% on lower feed and residual use more than offsetting higher food use.
• Exports are projected at 775 million bushels, down from revised 2021-2022 exports and would be the lowest since 1971-1972.
• Projected 2022-2023 ending stocks are 6% lower than last year at 619 million bushels, the lowest level in nine years.
• Production in Ukraine is forecast at 21.5 million tons in 2022-2023, 11.5 million lower than last year due to the ongoing war.
• Russia is projected as the leading 2022-2023 wheat exporter at 39 million tons, followed by the European Union, Australia, Canada and the United States.
• Ukraine’s 2022-2023 export forecast is 10 million tons, down sharply from last year’s 19 million tons on reduced production and significant logistical constraints for exports.
• Projected 2022-2023 world ending stocks are reduced 5% to 267 million tons and would be the lowest level in six years.
Corn (2022-2023 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 15.925 billion bushels
Exports: 2.4 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.625 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.815 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.375 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.36 billion bushels
Soybeans (2022-2023 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.89 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 125 million bushels
Exports: 2.2 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.255 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 310 million bushels
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