WASHINGTON — Lower soybean and corn production estimates tightened ending stocks in the Jan. 12 U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand report.
Here are the report’s highlights.
Soybeans: USDA projects a 2022-2023 season average farm price of $14.20 per bushel, up 20 cents from last month’s estimate.
• Soybean production was estimated at 4.276 billion bushels, down 69 million led by reductions for Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and Kansas.
• U.S. harvested area was estimated at 86.3 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous report. Yield was estimated at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushels.
• The U.S. soybean export forecast was reduced 55 million bushels to 2 billion, reflecting lower supplies, reduced import demand for China and a higher export forecast for Brazil.
• With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced exports, ending stocks were projected at 210 million bushels, down 10 million from the previous forecast.
• Argentina’s soybean crop was lowered by 4 million tons to 45.5 million on lower area and early season heat and dry weather conditions. China’s soybean crop was increased 1.9 million tons to 20.3 million on reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Brazil’s crop was hiked by 1 million tons to 153 million on higher area.
• Foreign soybean exports were reduced on lower exports for Argentina that were partly offset by higher exports for Brazil. China’s imports were lowered 2 million tons to 96 million on lower crush demand.
• With higher beginning stocks and lower use, global soybean ending stocks were increased 0.8 million tons to 103.5 million.
Corn: USDA left the season-average price unchanged from last month at $6.70 per bushel.
• Domestic corn production was estimated at 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield was more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area.
• Total corn use was reduced 185 million bushels to 13.915 billion.
• Exports were reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2019-2020 marketing year.
• Feed, seed and industrial use was reduced by 10 million bushels, with reductions in corn used for starch and glucose and dextrose.
• Feed and residual use was down 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the grain stocks report. With supply falling more than use, 2022-2023 corn stocks were lowered 15 million bushels.
• Foreign corn production was forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil partly offset by an increase for China.
• China’s corn feed and residual use was raised based on a larger crop and lower sorghum imports. Foreign corn ending stocks were down, mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, Pakistan and Paraguay with a partly offsetting increase for China.
• Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, were down 2 million.
Wheat: The 2022-2023 season-average price was unchanged from last month at $9.10 per bushel.
• U.S. supplies were raised on higher beginning stocks as reported in the Jan. 12 grain stocks report.
• Domestic feed and residual use was hiked by 30 million bushels to 80 million based on higher second-quarter implied disappearance based on the grain stocks report.
• Seed use was raised 3 million bushels to 69 million, reflecting larger than expected winter wheat plantings reported in the Jan. 12 winter wheat and canola seedings report.
• Projected 2022-2023 ending stocks were lowered from 571 million bushels to 567 million as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks.
• World supplies were raised 1.3 million tons to just over 1.058 billion on production increases in Ukraine and the European Union.
• World consumption for 2022-2023 was increased by 0.2 million tons to 789.7 million as higher feed and residual use for the United States more than offsets a decline for Ukraine.
• EU and Ukraine exports were raised 0.5 million tons each to 36.5 and 13 million respectively on higher exportable supplies.
• Projected 2022-2023 global ending stocks were raised 1.1 million tons to 268.4 million, with increases for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and India more than offsetting declines in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Corn (2022-2023 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 15.157 billion bushels
Exports: 1.925 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.275 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.715 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.275 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.242 billion bushels
Soybeans (2022-2023 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.566 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 120 million bushels
Exports: 1.99 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.245 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 210 million bushels
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