USDA projects corn, wheat acreage hikes

ARLINGTON, Va. — A first look at new crop balance sheets kicked off the 99th Agricultural Outlook Forum on Feb. 23.

The two-day U.S. Department of Agriculture event featured more than 100 subject matter experts, executives and academics discussing the largest issues impacting agriculture and potential solutions.

“We enter 2023 with a sense of optimism, but amid continued uncertainty. There are positive economic signals, but uncertainty is high as inflationary pressures persist and interest rates rise. Economies including China are reopening and COVID is no longer the major risk to the outlook that it was at this time last year,” Seth Meyer, USDA chief economist, said to open the forum.

“In agriculture, crop and livestock prices are still strong despite declining from recent highs and the farm sector, as a whole, enters the new year in good financial health with a strong cash position and solid balance sheet following a year of record-high net cash farm income in 2022.

“The economic fundamentals for the agriculture sector remain positive.”

—  Seth Meyer, chief economist, USDA

“Not all commodities or geographies are faring equally well. There are risks, including the implications of the western drought on cattle supplies and winter wheat conditions, the cost of producer inputs, the trajectory of future high pathogenic avian influenza cases, always the possibility of unusual weather that disrupts crop production in parts of the U.S and elsewhere and, of course, the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“But U.S. agriculture is resilient and innovative, and these challenges only highlight the need for continued productivity growth to maintain the abundant and affordable food supply we so easily take for granted.”

Here are the crop projections for the 2023-2024 marketing year.

Soybeans

Planted acres in the next marketing year are expected to be unchanged at 87.5 million with an average yield of 52 bushels per acre, compared to 49.5 in 2022-2023, for a projected record production of 4.51 billion bushels.

Record soybean crushings are anticipated at 2.31 billion bushels after being expected to reach 2.23 billion this year. Exports were projected upward to 2.025 billion bushels compared to the 1.999 billion projected for this year.

Soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year are projected at 290 million bushels, 65 million above 2022-2023.

The anticipated 2023-2024 soybean average farm price is $12.90 per bushel, $1.40 below this year’s projection.

Corn

The USDA projected 2023-2024 planted corn acres of 91 million compared to 88.6 million in the current marketing year.

The average new crop yield was projected at 181.5 bushels per acre, 8.2 bushels above 2022-2023, for total production of 15.085 billion bushels. Production is expected to be 13.73 billion in 2022-2023.

Corn for ethanol was unchanged at 5.25 billion bushels. Feed and residual is projected to increase by 325 million bushels to 5.6 billion bushels.

USDA raised new crop exports from 1.925 billion in 2022-2023 to 2.2 billion bushels. Ending 2023-2024 stocks are projected at 1.887 billion bushels compared to 1.267 billion this year.

The average farm price for the next marketing year based on this data is anticipated at $5.60 per bushel. This marketing year’s projected average price is $6.70 per bushel.

Wheat

Wheat acres are projected to rise significantly from 45.7 million to 49.5 million acres, while the 2023-2024 yield returns to three-year high of 49.2 bushels per acre. Production rebounds to 1.887 billion bushels after hitting 1.65 billion in 2022-2023.

Feed and seed use was decreased from 1.045 billion in the current marketing year to 1.042 billion in 2023-2024.

Exports are projected to reach a three-year high of 825 million bushels compared to 775 million in 2022-2023.

USDA projects all wheat ending stocks for 2023-2024 of 608 million bushels, 40 million above the current marketing year.

Wheat’s average farm price for 2023-2024 is projected at $8.50 per bushel, 50 cents below 2022-2023.

Meeting Challenges

“These past three years of economic uncertainty and market disruption brought on by the pandemic reinforce the importance of productivity growth in maintaining an abundant and affordable food supply. World populations continue to grow, putting ever-greater pressure on the agriculture system to supply more while using less, protecting resources for future generations,” Meyer said.

“The focus on sustainability recognizes that resources are finite and suggests new approaches to production practices to use these resources more efficiently. This could require a change in mindset and a new direction from some long-standing practices.

“Sustainability and profitability need not be at opposite ends of the spectrum. In fact, they can be mutually reinforcing, generating benefits for the environment, the climate and the bottom line.

“The high input costs facing producers again this year are a reminder of the value that can be gained by using resources more efficiently and, where possible, reducing dependence on fossil fuel-based products.

“The U.S. is a country that encourages innovation and has always been at the forefront in science, technology and management practices that support a safe, abundant and sustainable food supply and distribution sector.

“The sector is well-positioned to lead in addressing many of the biggest challenges faced by the world today, including eliminating food insecurity in the U.S. and worldwide, addressing and mitigating the root cause and impacts of climate change, increasing nutrition security and continuing to address the economic fallout related to the war in Ukraine. The economic fundamentals for the agriculture sector remain positive.”