WASHINGTON — In an atypical July move, the U.S. Department of Agriculture adjusted the nation’s average corn yield projection in its supply and demand estimates report.
Based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, operated by the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average corn yield was reduced by 4 bushels per acre from last month to 177.5 bushels per acre.
USDA typically releases its first corn and soybean yield estimates in the August crop production report using survey-based data. Adjustments will be made accordingly next month based on the surveys.
“According to data from the NCEI, harvested-area-weighted June precipitation data for the major Corn Belt states represented an extreme downward deviation from average,” the report stated.
“However, timely rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures for some of the driest parts of the Corn Belt during early July is expected to moderate the impact of June weather. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be in the coming weeks.”
Here are the other highlights gleaned from the latest USDA crop balance sheet.
Corn: USDA left the 2023-2024 season-average farm price received by producers unchanged from last month at $4.80 per bushel. Why?
• Corn beginning stocks were reduced by 50 million bushels, as greater feed and residual use for 2022-2023 more than offsets reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports.
• Corn production for 2023-2024 was forecast up 55 million bushels as greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 acreage report was partially offset by a 4-bushel reduction in yield to 177.5 bushels per acre.
• With supply rising fractionally and use unchanged, ending stocks were up 5 million bushels from last month to 2.262 billion bushels.
• Foreign corn production was fractionally higher with area increases for Canada and Ukraine that were partially offset by an area reduction for the European Union.
• For 2022-2023, corn production was increased for Brazil, but lowered for Argentina based on harvest results to date.
• For 2022-2023, corn exports were higher for Brazil, but were lowered for Argentina for the local marketing year beginning March 2023. Corn exports were also raised for Ukraine, Russia and the EU, but reduced for the United States and India.
• Global corn ending stocks were increased by 0.1 million metric tons to 314.12 million.
Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for 2023-2024 was forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month. Why?
• Soybean production was projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million from the June estimate on lower harvested area.
• Harvested area, forecast at 83.5 million acres in the June 30 acreage report, was down 4 million from last month.
• The soybean yield forecast was unchanged at a trend-line 52 bushels per acre.
• With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2023-2024 soybean supplies were lowered by 185 million bushels.
• USDA reduced soybean crush by 10 million bushels from last month’s estimate reflecting a lower soybean meal domestic disappearance forecast.
• Soybean exports were lowered 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion on lower U.S. supplies and lower global imports.
• With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2023-2024 were projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from last month.
• The Environmental Protection Agency issued the final renewable fuels standards rule for 2023, 2024 and 2025. The 2023 biomass-based diesel volume mandate was unchanged from the proposal published last December. For 2024, EPA increased the non-cellulosic advanced biofuel volume mandate, but lowered the implied conventional volume.
• USDA assumes that biomass-based diesel would be produced in excess of the advanced biofuel volume mandate to make up the shortfall in conventional renewable fuel to meet the total renewable fuel obligation. With the offsetting changes compared to the proposal in 2024, there was no change to soybean oil used for biofuel for 2023-2024 this month.
• China’s imports were lowered 1 million tons from last month to 99 million due to higher carry-in supplies from increased imports in the prior marketing year.
• Global soybean ending stocks were reduced 2.4 million tons to 121 million mainly on lower U.S. stocks.
Wheat: The projected season-average farm price was lowered by 20 cents from last month to $7.50 per bushel. Why?
• U.S. supplies were raised on larger production, which was up 74 million bushels to 1.739 billion, on higher harvested area and yields.
• The first 2023-2024 survey-based production forecast for other spring and durum indicates a decrease from last year. Conversely, winter wheat production was forecast higher on larger harvested area and higher yields.
• Gains for all wheat production were partly offset by smaller beginning stocks, which were reduced by 18 million bushels to 580 million as indicated in the June 30 grain stocks report.
• The 2023-2024 ending stocks were forecast at 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month.
• Two consecutive years of drought-affected hard red winter wheat crops reduce HRW ending stocks to 227 million bushels, the lowest level in 16 years despite decreased total use. HRW food use was forecast to be the smallest since 2010-2011, while HRW exports were the lowest since by-class supply and utilization records began in 1973-1974.
• World wheat consumption was increased by 3.3 million tons to 799.5 million, primarily on increased feed and residual use in China where rains at harvest, especially in Henan province, degraded wheat quality for food use.
• Projected 2023-2024 world ending stocks were lowered 4.2 million tons from last month to 266.5 million and would be the fourth consecutive annual decline.
Corn (2023-2024 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 16.747 billion bushels
Exports: 2.1 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.65 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.735 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.3 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.262 billion bushels
Soybeans (2023-2024 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.575 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 126 million bushels
Exports: 1.85 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.3 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 300 million bushels
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