Purdue economists share 2024 outlook

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Agricultural economists provided an economic forecast for 2024 in the Purdue Agricultural Economics Report’s annual outlook.

The report shows an overall positive outlook for 2024 with modest GDP growth, low unemployment, decreasing inflation and a potential lowering of interest rates.

Despite lower production costs, margins are expected to be relatively tight again in 2024.

However, margins for rotation corn and rotation soybeans are close to breakeven on high-productivity soil.

“The relatively high-cost structure along with tight margins, increases the importance of carefully scrutinizing input and crop decisions,” said Michael Langemeier, ag economics professor at Purdue University, in the 2024 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide.

“Producers are encouraged to create crop budgets and in general improve their recordkeeping,” Langemeier said.

The report also included commentary on the upcoming farm bill.

“As we enter 2024, the complexities surrounding the farm bill debate persist,” said Roman Keeney, associate professor of agricultural economics at Purdue and co-editor of the report.

“With federal spending cuts in focus, the projected cost of the farm bill will likely take center stage in agricultural committee deliberations this year,” Keeney said.

“The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report will closely monitor the evolving farm bill situation through its policy brief series, offering insights into critical legislation impacting farmers nationwide.”

Larry DeBoer, professor emeritus of agricultural economics at Purdue, predicts there will not be a recession in 2024.

“The Federal Reserve increased their policy rate at the end of 2023, but has kept it stable since August,” DeBoer said.

“Recession is a possibility, but it would be sheer stubbornness to continue predicting recession in the face of so much good news. My guess: There is no recession in 2024.”

To read the full Purdue Agricultural Economics Report, visit https://purdue.ag/paer.