Planted acres report moves balance sheets

WASHINGTON — Updated data from the recent planted acreage and grain stocks reports were plugged into the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s new crop supply and demand balance sheets issued July 12.

Here are the details.

Corn: USDA lowered the projected 2024-2025 season-average farm price by a dime from last month to $4.30 per bushel.

• U.S. corn beginning stocks were lowered 145 million bushels from last month to 1.877 billion bushels, mostly reflecting a greater use forecast for 2023-2024.

• Exports were increased by 75 million bushels based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date.

• Domestic feed and residual use is up 75 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June grain stocks report.

• U.S. corn production for 2024-2025 is forecast up 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area from the June acreage report.

• The nationwide yield was unchanged at 181 bushels per acre, based on weather-adjusted trend “assuming normal summer growing season weather and planting progress.”

• Total use was increased by 100 million bushels with increases to both feed and residual use and exports based on larger supplies and lower expected prices.

• With use rising slightly more than supply, U.S. new crop ending stocks are down 5 million bushels to 2.097 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn production was reduced based on declines for the European Union, Canada and Russia. Canada is down based on lower area.

• For the EU and Russia, extreme early-season heat in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus districts of Russia reduce yield prospects.

• For 2023-2024, corn production was lowered for Argentina, Pakistan, Mexico and the Philippines.

• Major global trade changes for 2024-2025 include larger corn exports for the United States with reductions for Russia and the EU.

• Corn exports were raised for Ukraine and the United States for 2023-2024, but lowered for Argentina, Pakistan and India.

• Foreign corn ending stocks for 2024-2025 are higher, with increases for Pakistan, Mexico and Turkey partly offset by a decline for Ukraine. Global corn stocks, at 311.6 million tons, are up 0.9 million.

Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for 2024-2025 is forecast at $11.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month.

• U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 15 million on lower harvested area.

• Harvested area, forecast at 85.3 million acres in the June acreage report, is down 0.3 million from last month.

• The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52 bushels per acre, based on a weather-adjusted trend model.

• With slightly lower beginning stocks, reduced production and unchanged use, ending stocks for 2024-2025 are projected at 435 million bushels, down 20 million from last month.

• Global soybean beginning stocks for 2024-2025 was increased slightly, with higher stocks for China mainly offset by lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay due to revisions for 2023-2024.

• Argentina’s soybean production for 2023-2024 was revised down 0.5 million tons to 49.5 million guided by data from Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries.

• China’s soybean imports for 2023-2024 were revised up 3 million tons to 108 million on larger-than-anticipated arrivals expected in the fourth quarter of the marketing year.

• Exports for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Benin and Canada were also raised for 2023-2024.

• With slightly higher beginning stocks, lower global production and relatively small changes to use in 2024-2025, global soybean stocks were lowered by 0.1 million tons to 127.8 million on lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, the EU and the United States, mostly offset by higher stocks for China.

Wheat: Noting recent declines in futures and cash prices and lower U.S. corn prices, USDA reduced the 2024-2025 season-average farm price to $5.70 per bushel, down 80 cents from last month.

• All U.S. wheat production was increased 134 million bushels to 2.008 billion, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields.

• The first 2024 survey-based production forecasts for other spring wheat and durum indicated an increase from last year for both classes at 578 million and 89 million bushels, respectively.

• U.S. winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1.341 billion bushels on an increase in harvested area and yields.

• Beginning stocks were hiked on the June 1 stocks reported in USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service grain stocks.

• Imports were lowered 15 million bushels to 105 million.

• U.S. feed and residual use was increased 10 million bushels to 110 million on larger supplies.

• With larger U.S. supplies, exports were hiked 25 million bushels to 825 million.

• Projected 2024-2025 domestic ending stocks were raised by 98 million bushels to 856 million, up 22% from last year and the highest in five years.

• Supplies were increased 6.9 million tons to just over 1.057 billion, primarily on larger beginning stocks for several countries and higher production, mainly for the United States, Pakistan and Canada.

• Canada’s production was increased 1 million tons to 35 million on improved moisture conditions in the Prairie Provinces.

• Global consumption was raised 1.9 million tons to 799.9 million on higher food, seed and industrial use and feed and residual use for several countries.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks are raised 5 million tons to 257.2 million, mostly on increases for the United States, China, Argentina, Pakistan and Canada more than offsetting reductions for Russia, the EU and Iran.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 17.002 billion bushels

Exports: 2.225 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.825 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.855 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.45 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.097 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.795 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 110 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.425 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 435 million bushels