Record yields forecast in initial NASS survey

WASHINGTON — The first survey-based crop forecasts for this growing season estimated record average yields nationwide and in the “I” states for corn and soybeans.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service survey estimates the average U.S. corn yield at a record high 183.1 bushels per acre, up 5.8 bushels from the 2023 final estimate, based on Aug. 1 conditions.

The nation’s corn production for grain is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, 1% lower than last year. If realized, this would be the third highest production for grain on record for the United States.

Total U.S. planted area, at 90.7 million acres, is down 1% from the previous estimate and 4% below 2023. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 82.7 million acres, also down 1% from the July forecast and 4% less than last year.

Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, U.S. yields are expected to average a record high 53.2 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bushels from 2023.

U.S. soybean production for beans is forecast at a record high 4.59 billion bushels, up 10% from 2023. Area harvested for beans in the nation is forecast at 86.3 million acres, 1% higher than the previous forecast and up 5% from 2023.

Nationwide winter wheat production is forecast at 1.36 billion bushels, up 1% from the July 1 forecast and 9% above 2023.

As of Aug. 1, the U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month and 2.6 bushels above last year’s average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre.

Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.6 million acres, down 1% from the acreage report released on June 28, but up 4% from 2023.

NASS forecast record corn yields in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa and record soybean yields in Illinois and Indiana, according to the Aug. 12 crop production report.

Indiana

NASS estimates Indiana’s corn to average at record 207 bushels per acre, 4 bushels above last year’s records high.

The projected 5.06 million harvested acres, 250,000 lower than last year, could produce over 1.047 billion bushels. The state harvested just under 1.078 billion bushels in 2023.

Soybeans are projected to average 62 bushels per acre statewide, breaking last year’s record by a bushel, based on Aug. 1 conditions.

Harvested area is expected to reach 5.78 million acres compared to 5.48 million in 2023. If the record yield reaches fruition, total production is projected at 358.36 million bushels, about 24 million above last year.

Winter wheat is anticipated to be 88 bushels per acre, 1 below last year. The 250,000 harvested acres are projected to produce 22 million bushels. Indiana had 335,000 harvested acres in 2023, producing 30.82 million bushels.

Illinois

The Prairie State’s average corn yield is projected at a record 225 bushels per acre, 11 above the previous high mark set in 2022 and 19 above 2023, according to the USDA.

Harvested acres are expected to be 10.65 million acres, 400,000 below last year, for total production of just over 2.396 billion bushels. Illinois produced 2.276 billion bushels in 2023.

The NASS survey results indicated an Illinois record average soybean yield of 66 bushels per acre, a bushel above the 2021 record and 3 better than last year.

Harvested acres are expected to be 10.75 million, compared to 10.3 million in 2023, for a projected total production of 709.5 million bushels. Last year’s production hit 648.9 million bushels.

Winter wheat is projected to average 83 bushels per acre, matching last month’s prediction and 4 below 2023. The harvested area of 700,000 acres is projected to produce 58.1 million bushels after hitting 67.86 million in 2023.

Iowa

A record corn high yield average of 209 bushels per acre is forecast for Iowa, 8 higher than 2023.

Corn harvested acres are anticipated at 12.35 million after harvesting 12.55 million a year ago. Total projection is expected to be over 2.581 billion bushels, compared to nearly 2.523 last year.

Iowa’s average soybean yield is forecast at 61 bushels per acre, 3 bushels higher than 2023.

Harvested area of 9.97 million acres is expected to produce 608.17 million bushels. Last year’s 9.88 million harvested acres produced 573.04 million bushels.

Statistical Methodology

Objective yield and farm operator surveys were conducted between July 25 and Aug. 6 to gather information on expected yields as of Aug. 1.

The objective yield survey for winter wheat was conducted in 10 states that account for 64% of the 2023 winter wheat production.

Farm operators selected for the objective yield survey were interviewed to update previously reported acreage data and seek permission to randomly locate two sample plots in selected fields for the objective yield survey.

The counts made within each sample plot depend on the crop and the maturity of that crop. In all cases, the number of plants is recorded along with other measurements that provide information to forecast the number heads and their weight.

The counts are used with similar data from previous years to develop a projected biological yield.

The average harvesting loss is subtracted to obtain a net yield. The plots are revisited each month until crop maturity when the fruit are harvested and weighed.

After the farm operator has harvested the sample field, another plot is sampled to obtain current year harvesting loss. The objective yield survey will be conducted for corn and soybeans beginning in September.

The farm operator survey was conducted primarily by telephone with some use of mail, internet and personal interviews.

Approximately 14,200 producers were interviewed during the survey period and asked questions about probable yield.

These growers will continue to be surveyed throughout the growing season to provide indications of average yields.