USDA lowers price projections on higher production

WASHINGTON — The season-average farm price projection continued edging downward as production out-paces demand, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Here are the highlights of USDA’s supply and demand estimates report released Aug. 12.

Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price for 2024-2025 is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, a 30-cent drop from the July estimate.

• Soybean production for 2024-2025 is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million on higher area and yield.

• Harvested area is forecast at 86.3 million acres, 1 million higher than last month’s estimate.

• The first survey-based soybean yield of the growing season forecast is 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month.

• Soybean supplies for 2024-2025 are projected at 4.9 billion bushels, up 11% from last year.

• With soybean exports up 25 million bushels on higher supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 560 million bushels, up 125 million from last month.

• The soybean meal price is forecast at $320 per short ton, down $10, and soybean oil price is unchanged at 42 cents per pound.

• Global 2024-2025 soybean production was increased 6.9 million tons to 428.7 million on higher production for the United States, Ukraine, Russia, India and Benin.

• Global soybean exports were increased 1 million tons to 181.2 million on higher exports for the United States, Ukraine, Russia and Benin partly offset by lower shipments for Argentina.

• Global 2024-2025 soybean ending stocks were hiked by 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million mainly on higher stocks for China, the United States and Argentina partly offset by lower stocks for Brazil. To note, stock revisions for China and Brazil derive from changes to trade in the 2023-2024 year.

• China’s 2023-2024 imports were raised to 111.5 million tons based on higher shipments by exporters.

• Brazil exports were increased to 105 million tons on the strong shipment pace through July.

Corn: USDA forecasts the 2024-2025 season-average price received by producers at $4.20 per bushel, down a dime from last month.

• Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are 10 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2023-2024.

• For 2023-2024, higher corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch.

• Corn production for 2024-2025 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a 0.7-million-acre decline in harvested area is more than offset by an increase in yield.

• The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 183.1 bushels per acre, is 2.1 bushels higher than last month’s projection.

• Total U.S. corn use for 2024-2025 is forecast 60 million bushels higher to 15 billion.

• Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected lower based on observed use during 2023-2024.

• Exports for 2024-2025 were raised 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices.

• With supply rising less than use, ending stocks were lowered by 24 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

• Foreign corn production is down based on cuts to the European Union, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine and Moldova. For the EU, Serbia and Russia, extreme heat and dryness in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus districts of Russia during the month of July reduced yield prospects. Corn production for Ukraine is reduced as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield expectations.

• Global corn stocks, at 310.2 million tons, are down 1.5 million from the July report.

Wheat: The projected 2024-2025 season-average farm price is unchanged from last month at $5.70 per bushel.

• Supplies were reduced on lower production, down 26 million bushels to 1.982 billion, as reduced harvested area was only partly offset by a higher average yield.

• Harvested area was lowered 0.9 million acres to 37.9 million and the all wheat yield is raised 0.4 bushels per acre to 52.2.

• By class, production of hard red spring, durum and soft red winter wheat decreased, while production of hard red winter and white increased.

• Domestic use was increased by 2 million bushels, all on higher food use, based primarily on the NASS flour millings products report issued Aug. 1.

• Projected 2024-2025 all wheat ending stocks were lowed by 28 million bushels to 828 million.

• Global wheat supplies are projected to increase 3.5 million tons to 1.061 billion primarily on larger production for Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia that outweighs lower production for the EU and the United States. In addition, larger beginning stocks are forecast for several countries including the EU.

• Production in Ukraine was raised on State Statistical Service data indicating larger-than-expected harvested area.

• Global consumption was hiked by 4.1 million tons to a record 804 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

• World trade was increased 2 million tons to 214.9 million primarily on increased exports by Australia and Ukraine.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks were reduced by 0.6 million tons to 256.6 million, the lowest since 2015-2016.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 17.038 billion bushels

Exports: 2.3 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.825 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.84 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.45 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.073 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.949 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 114 million bushels

Exports: 1.85 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.425 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 560 million bushels