USDA makes few changes in crop balance sheets

WASHINGTON — New survey-based production estimates, slight downward tweaks in old crop ending stocks and no changes on the corn and soybean demand side were of note on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report Sept. 12.

Here are the details.

Soybeans: USDA kept the projected 2024-2025 season-average price forecast at $10.80 per bushel.

• The 2023-2024 ending stocks were lowered by 5 million bushels to 340 million to reflect a slight increase in crush during that marketing year.

• Soybean production for 2024-2025 is projected down 3 million bushels from last month to 4.586 billion.

• With 2024-2025 soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

• Foreign soybean production is raised 0.6 million tons on higher production for Paraguay and Canada partly offset by lower output for the European Union and Serbia.

• Global soybean trade for 2024-2025 is increased to 181.6 million tons on higher exports for Paraguay and imports for Argentina.

• Global soybean ending stocks are increased 0.3 million tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU.

Corn: The season-average price received by producers was lowered a dime from last month to $4.10 per bushel.

• Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol in 2023-2024.

• Corn production for 2024-2025 is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 39 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 183.6 bushels per acre.

• Harvested area for grain was unchanged at 82.7 million.

• Total U.S. corn use was unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels. With supply falling and use unchanged, ending stocks were reduced 16 million bushels to 2.1 billion.

• Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for the EU, Ghana, Russia and Serbia partially offset by increases for Tanzania and Canada.

• Foreign corn ending stocks were cut 1.4 million tons to 256.1 million, mostly reflecting a reduction for China partly offset by an increase for Tanzania.

Wheat: USDA projects the 2024-2025 season-average farm price unchanged at $5.70 bushels per acre.

• The new crop U.S. wheat balance sheet outlook was unchanged relative to last month.

• Global wheat supplies are projected to increase 1.5 million tons to 1.062 billion as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower production.

• Beginning stocks were hiked primarily on Canada as Statistics Canada 2023-2024 ending stocks were significantly higher than USDA’s previous estimate. Canada’s ending stocks were also raised substantially higher for 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 based on Statistics Canada revisions.

• World wheat production was lowered 1.4 million tons to 796.9 million, but remains a record, as a reduction in the EU is only partially offset by higher production for Australia and Ukraine.

• Australia’s production was increased 2 million tons to 32 million on favorable conditions in Western Australia, New South Wales and Queensland.

• Ukraine was raised 0.7 million tons to 22.3 million based on harvest data released by the Ministry of Agriculture.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks were hiked by 0.6 million tons to 257.2 million.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 17.022 billion bushels

Exports: 2.3 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.825 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.84 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.45 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 2.057 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.941 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 114 million bushels

Exports: 1.85 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.425 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 550 million bushels