Allendale survey aligns with USDA yield estimates

MCHENRY, Ill. — Allendale’s 35th annual nationwide producer yield survey was right in the ballpark with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Sept. 12 estimates.

The producer-based survey, conducted Aug. 19-30 by Allendale, projects U.S. corn to average 182.53 bushels per acre and soybeans at 53.33 bushels per acre, for total production of 15.097 billion and 4.601 billion bushels, respectively.

USDA’s September estimates had the national average corn yield at 183.6 bushels per acre and soybeans were projected at 53.2. Corn production is forecast by the USDA at 15.2 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.59 billion.

“These estimates were based on producer-calculated yields in 27 states. Ample surveys gave us the numbers needed to project yields in 12 states. This covers 87% of corn production and 83% of soybean production,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist.

For this survey, the smaller production states were assumed using USDA’s August estimates. All harvested acreage used to calculate total production was assumed using USDA’s August estimates.

“Producers are asked their yield estimates, the stage of crop development and percent of production marketed. The survey was conducted by Allendale brokers and on the Allendale website and social media,” Nelson said.

“The 182.53 bushels per acre is nearly 1% above trend for corn. An estimated average soybean yield of 53.33 bushels per acre is 2.6% above trend.”

Marketing Status

The survey also asked producers their current status with old crop and new crop sales.

Producers indicated 92% of their old crop corn was sold, compared to 97% the previous year, and 22% of new crop has been sold, compared to 28% in last year’s survey.

The survey found 95% of old crop soybeans have been sold, matching a year ago. The survey found 20% of new crop soybeans have been sold, 9% less than a year ago.

“Over the past several years, we have seen producers more hesitant to market their new crop in the summer time frame. We are behind on new crop sales at this point in the year. It make sense because we’ve been seeing these prices just kind of take a nosedive over the past month and a half,” said Lynsey Such, Allendale communications director.

“Maybe this survey offers us a guide into the next year as perhaps we don’t see those large production increases that the markets kind of priced in up until this point. Even though we are looking at higher yields over trend, maybe we’re not going to see those large production changes.

“So, that might offer us a window over the next month or so to get some of these new crop sales done.”