Season-average price projections unchanged

WASHINGTON — The updated marketing year-end grain stocks data provided a clearer picture of the beginning supplies for the new crop year in the agriculture supply and demand estimates report released Oct. 11 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Here are the details.

Corn: USDA kept the projected 2024-2025 season average-price received by producers unchanged from last month at $4.10 per bushel.

• Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are 52 million bushels lower based on the Sept. 30 grain stocks report.

• Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 17 million from last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to 183.8 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7 million acres.

• Total use was increased slightly to 15 billion bushels reflecting greater exports.

• With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks were cut 58 million bushels to 1.999 billion.

• Foreign corn production was forecast down with declines for Ukraine, Egypt, Russia and the Philippines partially offset by an increase for India. Ukraine and Russia production was lowered based on harvest results to date. India is higher as a reduction in area is more than offset by a higher yield forecast.

• Foreign corn ending stocks were lowered slightly to 255.8 million tons, mostly reflecting a reduction for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina and Mexico.

• World corn ending stocks, at 306.5 million tons, are down 1.8 million from last month.

Soybeans: USDA kept the projected 2024-2025 season-average price unchanged from September at $10.80 per bushel.

• Soybean production is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on lower yields. Harvested area was unchanged at 86.3 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from the September forecast.

• With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies were reduced by 2 million bushels to 4.9 billion.

• With a slightly lower residual and no change to exports and crush, ending stocks were unchanged from last month at 550 million bushels.

• Global soybean ending stocks were hiked by 0.1 million to 134.6 million with higher stocks for China, Argentina and Brazil mostly offset by lower stocks for Ukraine, Turkey and Iran.

Wheat: The season-average farm price projection of $5.70 per bushel is unchanged from last month.

• Supplies were reduced 6 million bushels to 2.783 billion, as reduced beginning stocks and lower production are partly offset by larger imports.

• Production was lowered 11 million bushels to 1.971 billion, as reported in the small grains annual summary released Sept 30.

• Imports were raised 10 million bushels to 115 million based on a strong pace of imports for the first three months of the marketing year.

• USDA increased domestic use 10 million bushels to 120 million on higher feed and residual use.

• The grain stocks report released Sept. 30 indicated a year-to-year increase for first quarter — June through August — feed and residual disappearance from a year earlier.

• Exports remain at 825 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes.

• Projected ending stocks were lowered by 16 million bushels to 812 million, but still up 17% from the previous year.

• World trade is decreased 0.7 million tons to 215.8 million on reduced exports by the EU that are partly offset by an increase for Ukraine.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons to 257.7 million, but are still the lowest since 2015-2016.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.989 billion bushels

Exports: 2.325 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.825 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.84 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.45 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.999 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.939 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 114 million bushels

Exports: 1.85 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.425 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 550 million bushels