USDA, trade expectation slightly align

MCHENRY, Ill. — There were no major discrepancies in the trade’s pre-report guesses and what the U.S. Department of Agriculture came out with in its Oct. 11 crop production and crop balance sheet report.

“USDA’s monthly supply and demand report did come and go, so to speak, in terms of market impact. It was probably not a large market mover,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist.

“Overall, these numbers are really not getting the trade’s attention. This is more or less what was expected.

“Now the markets are going to move more or less into saying we’ve got supply figured out, and the next few months are mainly about South American production and U.S. demand.”

Here’s what Nelson had to say regarding USDA’s production estimates and domestic and global balance sheets.

On U.S. Corn

Yields were raised on this report by 0.2 bushels per acre to 183.8. Production was raised by 17 million bushels to now 15.203 billion.

This is still a net drop in supply from last month’s beliefs by USDA. We have 52 million bushels less for our beginning stocks.

USDA also gave the corn balance sheet a small positive there, as well, with a 25 million bushel increase for exports.

The net change for all these movements brought ending stocks lower, from 2.057 billion last month to now 1.999 billion for new crop corn stocks.

On Global Corn

Over on the world balance sheet, there was no change to the completed 2024 harvest for South America.

For new crop numbers for the 2025 harvest estimates, no change either for South America corn. That was exactly what was expected.

As far as other competitors, Ukraine’s corn crop was lowered by 1 million tons and Ukraine’s exports were also lowered by 1 million tons.

The Chinese corn import numbers, USDA lowered their view by 2 million tons to now a total of 19 million tons.

Keep in mind the Chinese government is still quite a bit different. They say 13 million tons of imports.

On U.S. Soybeans

Last month, we had a minor adjustment to old crop stock soybean numbers that does flow into these, as well. That old crop adjustment was 2 million bushels higher, just a minor increase.

Soybean production was lowered by 0.1 bushel per acre, making it 53.1 bushels per acre.

As far as production numbers, this was minor reduction of 4 million bushels. There were no changes on the new crop crush and export side.

Keep in mind we’re still a little bit behind on both sides in the market’s trade perception versus USDA’s current export estimate. There was no change in new crop soybean stocks with ending stocks of 550 million bushels.

On Global Soybeans

There was no change for the completed soybean harvest for Argentina or Brazil. There was no change for their estimates on the new crop 2025 harvest either, and that’s not really a big surprise there.

There was no change in the Chinese soybean production or import numbers. Keep in mind there’s still a big discrepancy on the Chinese import view.

USDA says 109 million metric tons. I believe China is all the way down to 95 million tons.

On U.S. Wheat

Moving to the wheat balance sheet, we’re not going to see many changes as far as surprises. We already saw an adjustment to U.S. old crop stocks. That was seen last month.

On top of that, we already saw the small grains summary which finalized 2024 production. That was lowered just a little on this report which was expected.

There was no change on the wheat export side and a moderate change for imports. New crop wheat stocks went from 828 million bushels to 812 million on this report.

On Global Wheat

The Argentina or Australia crop numbers were unchanged. That’s especially a little surprising for the Australia side.

These are our only two wheat crops still in active development. They’ll be harvesting in November and December.

As for completed harvests, Russia wheat production was lowered by 1 million tons to now 82 million tons. It was interesting to see there was no change in the 48 million ton export view, though.

Ukraine wheat production was lowered by 0.1 million tons. I was a little surprised to see the Ukraine wheat export estimate raised by 1 million tons.