South America projected to expand acreage

URBANA, Ill. — The leading soybean-producing country in the world is projected to see the slowest acreage growth in a decade while still reaching record production.

“This season, Brazilian soybean acreage is expected to grow by 2.8%, reaching 117 million acres,” said Joana Colussi, University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics instructor, Research and Learning Innovation coordinator and farmdoc team member.

“This marks the lowest growth in a decade, driven by lower profit margins for farmers including those in the Cerrado region, where more than 60% of soybeans are produced in Brazil,” said Colussi of the Brazilian savanna.

“Still, if the weather conditions help, the Brazil soybean crop could hit 6.101 billion bushels, a new record for farmers in Brazil and 13% increase over the previous year.”

Brazil had 114 million harvested soybean acres last year, producing 5.415 billion bushels. As a point of perspective, Brazil had 82 million acres of soybeans in the 2015-2016 growing season, producing 3.516 million bushels.

U.S. soybean farmers harvested 81.8 million acres of soybeans in the 2015 growing season for a total production of a then-record 3.93 billion bushels.

“Farmers in Brazil began planting in the central-west states around mid-September after an extended period of very dry conditions,” Colussi said.

“Recent rains have helped farmers to progress with soybean planting. As if Oct. 27, 37% of the expected crop had been planted, 3 percentage points behind the same period last year.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance that La Niña will persist from January to March 2025.

Typically, under a La Niña weather pattern, northern and central Brazil receive adequate rainfall, while southern Brazil tends to experience drought.

Given the impact of a La Niña, any early predictions of Brazil production “should be taken with caution,” Colussi said.

“Something to watch is that a slower planting progress in Brazil’s central-west region could lead to delays for their second corn crop — safrinha,” she said.

“This crop has a very specific planting window and any delay could mean more challenges down the line as farmers race to avoid the dry season that begins in mid-April.”

Argentina

The soybean crop in Argentina is expected to grow by 3 million acres this season, reaching 44 million. This is the largest expansion since the 2015-2016 season with the crop expected to reach around 1.911 billion bushels.

Argentina produced just over 1.77 billion bushels last year, and the record was 2.171 billion bushels in 2015-2016.

“The increase is especially due to last year’s corn crop struggles. Corn stunted disease impacted yields prompting farmers to shift more land to soybeans this season,” Colussi said.

“Unlike Brazil, Argentina soybeans and corn compete for the same planting season, which puts extra pressure on the acreage decisions farmer must make.”

“In total, South America is projected to produce around 8.7 billion bushels of soybeans in the current crop season, contributing to what could be a record global production of 15.7 billion bushels,” she said.

“With this global supply surge led by a record U.S. harvest, we may see further downward pressure on soybean prices.”

While the U.S. harvest wraps up, the South American growing season is just beginning and weather will play a large role from now until February.