USDA lowers corn, soybean stock estimates

WASHINGTON — Lower than expected corn and soybean production pushed ending stocks downward in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Jan. 10 supply and demand report estimates.

Here are the details.

Corn: The projected 2024-2025 season-average price received by producers was raised 15 cents from last month to $4.25 per bushel.

• Corn production is estimated at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3 bushels is partially offset by a 200,000-acre increase in harvested area.

• Total corn use is down 75 million bushels to 15.1 billion bushels.

• Feed and residual use was reduced 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the grain stocks report.

• Exports were cut 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting lower supplies.

• With supply falling more than use, corn stocks were lowered 198 million bushels to 1.54 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ghana and Russia. China corn production is raised to a record 294.9 million tons based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Corn production is higher for Russia based on the latest information from Rosstat.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 293.3 million tons, are down 3.1 million.

Soybeans: USDA opted to keep the projected U.S. season-average price unchanged at $10.20 per bushel.

• Soybean production is estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million led by decreases for Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio.

• Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres, down 200,000.

• Yield is estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel.

• With lower production, slightly higher imports and unchanged exports and crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 380 million bushels, down 90 million.

• The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel.

• Global soybean exports are unchanged while global soybean crush is raised 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million.

• Crush is higher for Brazil on strong first-quarter soybean meal exports. The Iraq soybean balance sheet was also added to the database as soybean imports have risen over the past few years, which contributed to higher month-over-month global crush.

• Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 128.4 million tons, down 3.5 million, mainly on lower stocks for the United States and Brazil.

Wheat: The season-average farm price was lowered by a nickel from last month to $5.55 per bushel.

• Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 130 million, all on hard red spring wheat.

• Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes based on the grain stocks report.

• Seed use is increased 2 million bushels to 64 million, based on the winter wheat and canola seedings report.

• Exports are unchanged at 850 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes.

• Projected 2024-2025 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15% from last year.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks are were increased 900,000 tons to 258.8 million, primarily on increases for Russia, Brazil, Nigeria and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for Turkey, China and Indonesia.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.655 billion bushels

Exports: 2.45 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.775 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.89 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.54 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.729 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 114 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.410 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 380 million bushels