USDA finds lower global stocks

WASHINGTON — Other than a minor tweak in the wheat balance sheet, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s domestic supply and demand estimates for the major crops were unchanged, but there were downward movements globally in the Feb. 11 report.

Here are the details.

Wheat: The season-average farm price for 2024-2025 was unchanged from last month at $5.55 per bushel.

• Food use was increased by 4 million bushels to 970 million, as wheat flour grind during the October-December quarter was up 2% from last year as indicated in the National Agricultural Statistics Service flour milling products report.

• Projected ending stocks decreased 4 million bushels to 794 million, but are 14% above last year.

• Global wheat supplies were increased 0.6 million tons to just over 1.061 billion, primarily on higher production for Kazakhstan and Argentina.

• Global consumption was increased 1.8 million tons to 803.7 million on higher feed and residual use for the European Union, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine.

• World trade declined by 3 million tons to 209 million with export reductions for the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine.

• The largest import change was a decrease for China of 2.5 million tons to 8 million on a continued sluggish import pace. These would be their lowest imports in five years and China was the leading world wheat importer last year at 13.6 million tons.

• Projected 2024-2025 ending stocks were lowered 1.3 million tons from last month to 257.6 million.

Corn: USDA raised the 2024-2025 season-average farm price by a dime from last month to $4.35 per bushel.

• This month’s U.S. corn supply and use outlook was unchanged from the January report.

• Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil. Production was lowered for Argentina reflecting a cut in yield, as heat and dryness during January and into early February reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas.

• For Brazil, the corn production forecast was reduced as slow second-crop planting progress in the center-west lowered yield prospects.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 290.3 million tons, are down 3 million from last month.

Soybeans: The season-average price was lowered by a dime to $10.10 per bushel.

• U.S. 2024-2025 soybean supply and use projections were unchanged from the January estimates.

• Argentina’s soybean crop was lowered from 52 million metric tons to 49 million due to persistent heat and dryness in January.

• Brazilian soybean production was unchanged at 169 million tons. Beneficial weather in the center-west is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields.

• Global soybean crush was raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies.

• With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks were reduced 4 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.655 billion bushels

Exports: 2.45 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.775 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.89 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.54 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.729 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 114 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.410 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 380 million bushels