USDA projects corn acres increase

ARLINGTON, Va. — Crop production baseline forecasts for the 2025-2026 marketing year balance sheets were unveiled at the Agricultural Outlook Forum.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Grain and Oilseeds Outlook during the Feb. 27 event forecast corn production for the upcoming growing season at 15.585 billion bushels, up 718 million bushels from 2024-2025.

The average yield estimate, based on “based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather,” is pegged at 181 bushels per acre across 93.6 million acres, up 3.4 million acres from 2024. The nation’s corn averaged 179.3 bushels per acre last year.

The average new crop corn price is projected at $4.20 per bushels, down 15 cents from the 2024-2025 season average.

USDA sees total domestic corn use rising as feed and residual use increase 125 million bushels to 5.9 billion bushels. The forecast does not see any increase in corn use for ethanol at 5.5 billion bushels.

Total domestic corn use was estimated at 12.785 billion bushels, up 120 million bushels from 2024-2025.

Corn exports are projected 50 million lower at 2.45 billion bushels as the global market share is expected to decline with larger exports from South America.

Corn ending stocks are expected to be higher for the 2025-2026 crop, at 1.965 billion bushels, putting the stocks-to-use ratio at 12.9%, the highest since 2019-2020. Last year’s stocks-to-use was 10.2% with ending stocks of 1.54 billion bushels.

Soybeans

Domestic soybean production is projected at 4.366 billion bushels, up 4 million from last year. The average yield was estimated at 52.5 bushels per acre, up 1.8 from 2024-2025, and planted acres is projected at 84 million acres, 3.1 million lower than last year.

USDA expects domestic crush to increase 65 million bushels to 2.475 billion. Total domestic use will increase 61 million bushels overall to 2.585 billion.

Soybean exports are pegged to increase 40 million bushels to 1.865 billion for the 2025-2026 marketing year. That puts total use at 4.45 billion bushels, up 101 million from last year.

Ending stocks are expected to come in lower in 2025-2026 at 320 million bushels, down 60 million from 2024-2025, and stocks-to-use of 7.2% compared to 8.7% last year.

USDA projected the soybean new crop season average price at $10 per bushels, down a dime from 2024-2025.

“Larger global supplies leading to downward pressure on prices is expected to boost demand for oilseeds, meals and oils in 2025-2026,” according to the outlook.

Soybean production in Brazil, which was relatively equal to U.S. production only six years ago, surged in the last several years on higher demand from China, lower relative cost to expand planted area and a weak currency.

Brazil is harvesting a crop in 2025 that is expected to be 1.8 billion bushels larger or over 40% higher than the U.S. harvest in 2024.

With supplies outpacing demand over the next several months, South American stocks at the beginning of the 2025 U.S. harvest will be larger compared to prior years.

Wheat

U.S. wheat planted acreage for 2025-2026 is projected at 47 million acres, up 900,000 acres from last year. The average yield is set at 50.1 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from a year ago.

USDA estimates total wheat production of 1.926 billion bushels, down 45 million from the last marketing year, for a total supply forecast of 2.83 billion.

Total domestic wheat use is forecast at 1.154 billion bushels, matching 2024-2025 usage numbers. USDA exports are expected to match 2024-2025 at 850 million bushels.

However, wheat ending stocks will rise to 826 million bushels, 32 million higher than last year, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 41.2%, minimally higher than a year ago.

The season average projected price is expected to be $5.50 per bushel, down a nickel from last year.

“Wheat prices are also expected to be supported by corn prices projected only marginally lower in 2025-2026,” the report noted.

Analysis

“Among the three main crops, corn area is projected to increase the most, with favorable prices relative to competing crops such as soybeans, cotton and sorghum,” USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said.

“Soybean area is expected to fall reflecting lower prices for soybeans driven in part by large supplies in South America. Wheat area is higher, mostly reflecting increased winter wheat plantings.

“According to the Agricultural Marketing Service Illinois production cost report, most costs for producers are down relative to this time a year ago. Spot prices for fertilizer such as anhydrous ammonia are down about 5%, while diesel is down by a similar amount.

“Interest costs have declined with the three-month Treasury Bill yield down about 100 basis points.

“The average of December corn futures during the month of February to date is up slightly relative to the entire month a year ago.

“In contrast, November soybean futures are down close to 10%. New crop cash bids are also showing similar relative changes.

“Since the start of February, prices for fall delivery of corn in Illinois have averaged about $4.25 per bushel, up slightly relative to all of February a year ago, while soybean prices have averaged about $10.10 per bushel, a decline of just under 10%.

“The ratio of new crop soybean to corn prices for this report, at just under 2.4%, is the lowest since 2013.

“I continue to have concerns about the crop side agriculture because we continue to see tight margins. The expectation is for most prices to move yet lower.

“Input prices tend to be pretty sticky, and so margins continue to be unfavorable, and unfavorable is probably a kind word for some crops. Even crops where we see maybe there’s a little bounce in prices like cotton, that’s a bounce from a really, really bad price to only a really bad price.”

Arlan Suderman, StoneX chief commodities economist, said the most significant data from these projections are the corn and soybean yields.

“We’re going to see those yields into May and probably June and July supply and demand balance sheets,” Suderman said.

“The acreage is going to change with the planting intentions report March 31, all of the demand estimates are going to change, as well, but it gives us a sense of what USDA is thinking right now.

“From the acreage standpoint, it was pretty close to what the trade was thinking. I think if there’s a risk to it, it’s higher on corn and lower on soybeans, but that’s what we’ll see out of the planting intentions survey that comes out.”