Small changes in crop balances with pending trade shifts

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 11 supply and demand estimates report opened with a note due to the current fluidity of trade and tariff policies.

“The world agricultural supply and demand estimates report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place,” the report stated.

“U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts.

“Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.”

Here are highlights of the crop balance sheets.

Corn: USDA kept its projected 2024-2025 season-average price at $4.35 per bushel.

• No changes were made in the 2024-2025 domestic corn outlook relative to last month with total supplies of 16.655 billion bushels and ending stocks of 1.54 billion bushels.

• Foreign corn production is higher as increases for India, Russia and Ukraine are partly offset by declines for South Africa and Mexico. India was raised reflecting increases to both area and yield; the latest information from the government indicates greater planted area, while yield prospects are higher on exceptional kharif monsoon season rainfall. Russia’s increase is based on the latest data from Rosstat. Ukraine was increased based on updated harvest information.

• South Africa’s corn production estimate was reduced mostly reflecting lower area. Mexico is cut as lower winter corn yield expectations are partially offset by higher summer corn area.

• Major global trade changes for 2024-2025 include reduced corn exports for Brazil and South Africa. For 2023-2024, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2025 were lowered based on observed shipments to date. More than offsetting is an increase for Argentina.

• Corn imports for 2024-2025 were cut for China and Taiwan, but raised for Turkey, Vietnam, Colombia and Egypt.

• Foreign corn ending stocks were lowered, mostly reflecting declines for China and Argentina that are partly offset by increases for Russia and India.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 288.9 million tons, are down 1.4 million.

Soybeans: The season-average price is projected at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month’s estimate.

• Soybean meal and oil prices were unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.

• U.S. 2024-2025 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged with total supplies of 4.729 billion bushels and ending stocks of 380 million bushels.

• Global 2024-2025 soybean supply and use forecasts include nearly unchanged production, higher crush and lower ending stocks.

• Higher production for Ukraine, Mexico and Australia was offset by lower production for South Africa.

• Soybean crush was increased by 2.9 million tons to 352.8 million, mainly on higher crush for China, Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine and Pakistan.

• Soybean crush for China was raised 2 million tons to 105 million based on pace to date.

• Global soybean exports were changed slightly as higher shipments for Canada are offset by lower exports for South Africa.

• Global ending stocks were reduced by 2.9 million tons to 121.4 million mainly on lower stocks for China and Argentina.

Wheat: Based on prices reported to date and expectations, USDA lowered the projected season-average farm price by a nickel to $5.50 per bushel.

• U.S. supplies were raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 140 million on a continued robust pace. By-class increases were made to hard red spring and durum.

• Wheat exports were reduced by 15 million bushels to 835 million, based on census exports through January and expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year. By-class reductions were made to hard red spring, soft red white and durum.

• The projected 2024-2025 ending stocks was increased 25 million bushels to 819 million, up 18% from last year.

• Global wheat supplies are projected up by 5.4 million tons to nearly 1.067 billion, mainly on increased beginning stocks for Turkey and higher production for Australia, Argentina and Ukraine.

• Australia’s production was raised 2.1 million tons to 34.1 million, which is Australia’s third largest production on record.

• Turkey’s 2024-2025 beginning stocks was increased 2.2 million tons on a multi-year downward revision in its food, seed and industrial usage.

• Global wheat consumption was hiked by 2.9 million tons to 806.7 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Australia, European Union and Thailand.

• World trade is 0.9 million tons lower at 208.1 million on decreased exports for EU, Russia and the United States.

• China’s imports were reduced 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million and are less than half of its 2023-2024 imports.

• Projected 2024-2025 global ending stocks were raised 2.5 million tons to 260.1 million, mostly on increases for Turkey, Argentina, the United States, Australia and Russia.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.655 billion bushels

Exports: 2.45 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.775 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.89 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.54 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.729 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 114 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.410 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 380 million bushels