No changes in USDA price projections

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture opened its monthly supply and demand estimates report with a caveat.

“The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of the publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place,” noted the USDA in its April 10 report.

Here are the highlights that include new data from the March 31 quarterly grain stocks report.

Corn: The 2024-2025 season-average estimated price received by producers is unchanged from last month at $4.35 per bushel.

• U.S. seed and residual use was cut by 25 million bushels to 5.8 billion based on disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March 31 grain stocks report.

• U.S. exports were increased 100 million bushels reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices.

• With no other use changes, U.S. ending stocks are down 75 million bushels from last month to 1.465 billion.

• Foreign corn production was raised, with increases for the European Union, Tanzania and Honduras partially offset by declines for Moldova, Cambodia and Kenya. EU corn is higher reflecting larger crops for Poland, Croatia, France and Germany that are partially offset by reductions for Romania and Bulgaria.

• Major global trade changes for 2024-2025 include higher projected corn exports for the United States and a reduction for Pakistan.

• Corn imports were hiked for the EU, Mexico, Turkey and Peru, but lowered for Vietnam.

• Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan.

• Global corn ending stocks, at 287.7 million tons, are down 1.3 million tons.

Soybeans: USDA kept the 2024-2025 domestic season-average price at $9.95 per bushel.

• USDA increased soybean crush by 10 million bushels to 4.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use and soybean oil exports.

• Soybean oil exports were increased based on export commitments.

• Domestic soybean oil for biofuel was lowered based on pace to date. However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil.

• With soybean exports unchanged and imports increased slightly, U.S. soybean ending stocks were reduced by 5 million bushels to 375 million.

• Global beginning stocks were raised by 2.7 million tons mainly on a revised 2023-2024 crop for Brazil. After a review of 2024 disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023-2024 production was increased 1.5 million tons to 154.5 million.

• Global soybean crush was hiked by 2 million tons to 354.8 million on higher crush for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and the United States.

• Ample global soybean meal supplies, lower prices and lower supply of alternative oilseed meals led to increased use of soybean meal consumption globally.

• Global soybean exports were increased 0.2 million tons to 182.1 million. Exports were raised for Canada and Nigeria, but lowered for Ukraine.

• Global soybean ending stocks were hiked by 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and the EU.

Wheat: No change was made from last month’s 2024-2025 season-average price estimate of $5.50 per bushel.

• Supplies were raised on higher projected imports, up 10 million bushels to 150 million, with increases for hard red spring, durum, white and hard red winter. At this level, imports would be the largest since 2017-2018.

• Domestic consumption is forecast 2 million bushels lower on reduced seed use, based primarily on the March National Agricultural Statistics Service prospective plantings report.

• Feed and residual use was unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class revisions based on the March 31 NASS grain stocks report.

• U.S. exports were lowered 15 million bushels to 820 million with reductions to hard red spring and hard red winter.

• Projected 2024-2025 U.S. ending stocks were increased by 27 million bushels to 846 million, 22% above the previous year.

• Global wheat supplies were lowered 0.8 million tons to nearly 1.066 billion primarily on reduced production estimates for Saudi Arabia and the EU, as well as lower beginning stock estimates for Uzbekistan and Israel.

• World consumption is forecast 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million, primarily on lower food, seed and industrial use for India and China.

• Projected 2024-2025 global trade was cut 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia and the EU that are only partly offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine.

• World exports for 2024-2025 are expected to be 7% lower than the previous year.

• Projected 2024-2025 world ending stocks were increased 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million as higher stocks for India, Russia, the United States and the EU are partly offset by a decrease for China.

• Global wheat stocks for 2024-2025 are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since 2015-2016.

Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total corn supply: 16.655 billion bushels

Exports: 2.55 billion bushels

Feed, residual use: 5.75 billion bushels

Food, seed, industrial use: 6.89 billion bushels

Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels

Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.465 billion bushels

Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)

Total soybean supply: 4.734 billion bushels

Seed, residual: 114 million bushels

Exports: 1.825 billion bushels

Crushings: 2.42 billion bushels

Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 375 million bushels